E63013569 /South East evidence profile
South East evidence profile
Horndean digital planning profile
Horndean is a medium, non-coastal built-up area in South East. ONS records show a 2021 population of 34,046; the population grew steadily between 2001 and 2021, while the 2015 to 2024 employment series shows a flat employment count. This profile turns those public observations into a reviewable website-planning brief without claiming that the figures measure searches, leads or Mosalio's physical presence.
01 / Data snapshot
What the reviewed source records
- BUA24 code
- E63013569
- ITL1 region
- South East
- Coastal
- Non-coastal
- Income-deprivation flag
- Lower deprivation
02 / Context
Three comparisons, with the benchmark stated
1.9% below the 11.2% median across complete England records in this ONS file.
in line with the 0% dataset median.
44.1% below the 224.1% dataset median.
These medians use every complete England record accepted from the same ONS file. They are descriptive context, not targets, forecasts or a national demand model.
03 / Distinctive pattern
Where this record sits within 936 complete England profiles
Lower quartile · percentile position 14.2 of 100.
Upper quartile · percentile position 75.7 of 100.
Upper quartile · percentile position 75.5 of 100.
These are the three values furthest from the middle percentile position for this record. A higher position means a higher published value, not a better outcome or evidence of search demand.
Evidence fingerprint: sha256:8fc21b133c5…81d9f0d2e97d
04 / Constrained peers
Three named comparisons from the same reviewed source
Each peer is selected from all 936complete England records using the documented eight-metric distance. Deltas are Horndean minus the named peer; a plus sign means the value recorded for Horndean is higher.
Regional peer
Locks Heath · E63013644
South East. Nearest complete record in South East. ONS classification: Nearer - Lower deprivation - Working.
- 2021 population
- -1,083 people
- Population change, 2001 to 2021
- -2.3 pp
- Economic inactivity
- +2.5 pp
- Employment change, 2015 to 2024
- 0 pp
- 2023 median house price
- -£25,000
- House-price growth, 2001 to 2023
- -5.2 pp
- Population aged under 25
- -0.1 pp
- Population aged 65 or over
- +2 pp
Classification peer
Frampton Cotterell and Winterbourne · E63012037
South West. Nearest complete record outside South East with the same ONS combined classification. ONS classification: Nearer - Lower deprivation - Residential.
- 2021 population
- +19,077 people
- Population change, 2001 to 2021
- +3.1 pp
- Economic inactivity
- -1 pp
- Employment change, 2015 to 2024
- 0 pp
- 2023 median house price
- -£45,000
- House-price growth, 2001 to 2023
- -23.8 pp
- Population aged under 25
- -0.8 pp
- Population aged 65 or over
- -0.8 pp
National peer
Waterlooville · E63013621
South East. Nearest remaining complete England record. ONS classification: Nearer - Medium deprivation - Mixed.
- 2021 population
- -275 people
- Population change, 2001 to 2021
- -3.4 pp
- Economic inactivity
- +0.8 pp
- Employment change, 2015 to 2024
- 0 pp
- 2023 median house price
- +£38,750
- House-price growth, 2001 to 2023
- -22.2 pp
- Population aged under 25
- -0.6 pp
- Population aged 65 or over
- +1.6 pp
05 / Evidence synthesis
Horndean evidence synthesis: House-price growth, 2001 to 2023, Population aged 65 or over, 2023 median house price
Horndean is recorded as a medium, non-coastal, residential built-up area, nearer to a major town or city. This classification sets a transparent frame for the three observations below; it is not a persona, a service-area promise or proof of local search demand. Each finding pairs one distinctive percentile measure with one independently selected peer and one explicit validation route.
Eight-metric evidence matrix
The matrix shows every measure used by the peer-distance method, not only the three most distinctive values. Direction describes the published value relative to the middle percentile position; it is not a positive or negative judgement.
Highest-to-lowest percentile order: Population aged 65 or over → 2023 median house price → 2021 population → Economic inactivity → Population change, 2001 to 2021 → Employment change, 2015 to 2024 → Population aged under 25 → House-price growth, 2001 to 2023.
Furthest-to-nearest distance from the middle percentile: House-price growth, 2001 to 2023 → Population aged 65 or over → 2023 median house price → Population aged under 25 → 2021 population → Employment change, 2015 to 2024 → Population change, 2001 to 2021 → Economic inactivity.
Regional peer
House-price growth, 2001 to 2023: 180% · Locks Heath delta -5.2 pp
The reviewed record positions Horndean at percentile 14.2 for house-price growth, 2001 to 2023; its published value is 180% and its band is lower quartile. Against Locks Heath's reviewed regional record, the displayed delta is -5.2 pp. That comparator comes from the documented rule: nearest complete record in south east. This evidence can narrow a discovery question around how dated economic context is labelled and maintained, while source-date checks and user tests for interpretation supplies the user-level check the aggregate data cannot provide. Keep the inference narrow: historic price growth cannot support a current revenue claim.
Classification peer
Population aged 65 or over: 24.1% · Frampton Cotterell and Winterbourne delta -0.8 pp
For population aged 65 or over, the source reports 24.1% for Horndean. That sits in the upper quartile, 25.7 percentile points from the middle position. The same-source classification check uses Frampton Cotterell and Winterbourne, classified as Nearer - Lower deprivation - Residential. The Horndean-minus-Frampton Cotterell and Winterbourne delta on this metric is -0.8 pp. For planning, document the observation beside readability, keyboard access and assisted alternatives and require inclusive usability sessions and accessibility conformance checks before treating the idea as an accepted requirement. The boundary is important: an age-group share does not determine digital ability.
National peer
2023 median house price: £350,000 · Waterlooville delta +£38,750
At £350,000, 2023 median house price places Horndean in the upper quartile and at percentile 75.5 of the reviewed distribution. The same-source national check uses Waterlooville, classified as Nearer - Medium deprivation - Mixed. The Horndean-minus-Waterlooville delta on this metric is +£38,750. This evidence can narrow a discovery question around pricing clarity, qualification steps and expectation setting, while comprehension tests using the organisation's real offer and fees supplies the user-level check the aggregate data cannot provide. Keep the inference narrow: a median house price is not a household affordability measure.
Horndean's evidence pattern combines the medium, non-coastal, residential built-up area, nearer to a major town or city frame with three percentile observations and peer-specific deltas. That combination can make discovery more precise, but it cannot establish what residents want or whether a service has local demand. Decisions should remain reversible until direct research or measured website behaviour confirms them.
06 / Evidence interpretation
Planning signals before design decisions
Population context: 34,046 people in 2021
Horndean's recorded population changed from 31,155 in 2001 to 34,046 in 2021 (+9.3%). This historical direction can inform content governance and capacity planning, but it is not a forecast and does not establish demand for a particular service.
Audience context: 24.1% aged 65 or over
The 2021 age-group series records 5,901 people aged 0 to 15, 2,856 aged 16 to 24, 17,075 aged 25 to 64 and 8,188 aged 65 or over. Small differences from the headline population reflect the published source series; percentages here use the age-group total and should guide testing questions, not stereotypes.
Activity context: 39.6% economically inactive
ONS records economic inactivity at 39.6%. The published composition includes 28.6% retired, 2.9% long-term sick or disabled, 2.7% students and 3.5% looking after home or family. These categories support inclusive task design; they do not identify individual users or purchasing intent.
Economic context: £350,000 median house price in 2023
The median house-price series moved from £125,000 in 2001 to £340,000 in 2021 and £350,000 in 2023, a published change of +180%. It is contextual evidence only—not a current affordability, revenue or customer-value estimate.
07 / Independent question set
Questions this evidence cannot answer on its own
These questions convert the profile-specific observations into falsifiable discovery work. They are not recommendations to create a service, location or page, and each needs direct user or behavioural evidence before it changes a website brief.
- 01
Which real user task would justify changing how dated economic context is labelled and maintained after seeing Horndean's house-price growth, 2001 to 2023 position and its -5.2 pp difference from Locks Heath?
Evidence basis: 180%, lower quartile, with Horndean minus the regional peer equal to -5.2 pp. Validation route: source-date checks and user tests for interpretation.
- 02
If the classification peer delta of -0.8 pp is included in a brief, what decision about readability, keyboard access and assisted alternatives could it inform and what result would falsify that hypothesis?
Frampton Cotterell and Winterbourne is the constrained classification reference and is classified as Nearer - Lower deprivation - Residential; the question keeps an age-group share does not determine digital ability as an explicit limit.
- 03
What evidence would show that the 2023 median house price contrast between Horndean and Waterlooville should alter pricing clarity, qualification steps and expectation setting, rather than remain background context?
This question is traceable to 2023 median house price at percentile 75.5 and a +£38,750 profile-minus-peer difference, not to inferred local behaviour.
- 04
For Horndean's medium, non-coastal, residential built-up area, nearer to a major town or city classification, how should house-price growth, 2001 to 2023, population aged 65 or over, 2023 median house price be tested as separate website hypotheses without turning the combined pattern into a claim about local demand?
Cross-check all three named comparisons—Locks Heath, Frampton Cotterell and Winterbourne, Waterlooville—and define a user-research or behavioural measure for each question before changing navigation, page scope or conversion paths. The observations share one source but do not demonstrate causation.
08 / Practical brief
Website-planning recommendations for this evidence pattern
- 01
Make service boundaries explicit
Horndean is classified as residential. Explain delivery areas, remote or on-site conditions, response times and exclusions in visible copy. This reduces ambiguity for residents without inventing a local office or multiplying near-identical neighbourhood pages.
- 02
Differentiate from the nearby major centre
Horndean is nearer to a major town or city. Use specific offer boundaries, proof and response expectations to explain why the organisation is relevant; do not rely on a place-name heading or create a doorway that simply redirects users to a national service page.
- 03
Treat readability as a conversion requirement
24.1% of the recorded 2021 age-group total is aged 65 or over. Use plain language, strong focus states, generous type, keyboard-operable controls and a non-digital contact alternative; validate these choices with real users rather than assuming age determines ability.
- 04
Prioritise clarity before catalogue expansion
Horndean recorded +9.3% population change from 2001 to 2021 and 0% employment change from 2015 to 2024. Start with the few journeys that can be maintained well, instrument meaningful outcomes and expand only when verified questions or search data show a separate need.
09 / Method and limits
What this profile can—and cannot—support
This is a Mosalio editorial interpretation of the ONS May 2026 dataset for BUA24 code E63013569. The source periods differ by metric; values are historical, not live. The profile deliberately excludes ONS experimental visitor-to-resident fields and makes no claim about search volume, rankings, customers, a Mosalio office or physical delivery in Horndean.
Mosalio does not claim an office, staff member, customer, or physical-delivery presence in Horndean.
Source: Office for National Statistics, Understanding towns in England and Wales, investigating socioeconomic trends, released . This Mosalio interpretation was first published on and last reviewed on .
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
How this page was made: Mosalio applies one documented, deterministic transform to the validated ONS record, calculates the displayed comparisons, and renders the result from source-controlled data. It is an automated public-data resource, not individually commissioned local market research. A portfolio-level editorial-value review checks every profile's source identity, distinctive metrics, peer evidence, synthesis and planning questions before index eligibility can be enabled.
Analysis basis: Midrank percentile across all accepted England records; a higher percentile means a higher published value, not a better outcome. Root-mean-square Euclidean distance across eight clipped robust z-scores; population and 2023 house price are log-transformed before median/MAD scaling.